Enduring Fury Distilled
A primer on the scenario leading to the attacks and how to track future events.
Late Friday, the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in an operation dubbed Epic Fury. The situation on the ground is still fluid. Iran's leadership has been decimated and is in disarray; the US and Israeli bombing campaign continues. What follows is a quick primer on how we got here, and the best places to track what comes next beyond the usual headlines.
Timeline
If you have not been tracking the conflict, here is a quick refresher on some meaningful events that materially shape the current engagement.
2017-2018: the Trump administration first renews sanctions then withdraws from the JCPOA nuclear weapons deal. Maximum pressure initiated.
2019: conflict heats up with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Tanker attacks in the Straits of Hormuz lead to a visit from a US Navy task force.
2020: A US drone attack kills IRGC leader Qasem Soleimani in response for strikes on US bases in Iraq.
2023-4: Iran backed Houthi rebels attack Red Sea shipping. US and UK forces launch strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure, culminating in large-scale strike on 1,000 targets in March 2025.
September 2024: Israel decapitates Hezbollah in a daring strike using booby trapped pagers distributed through a years-long supply chain attack. Hezbollah is rendered ineffective as a fighting force to this day.
June 2025: Israel attacks Iran in the Twelve Day War. The US jumps in near the end of the fight, attacking Iranian air defense and nuclear capabilities directly. Proved US and Israeli assets were capable of penetrating Iranian airspace at will.
January 2026: Nationwide protests erupt and are bloodily repressed. Thousands killed, many more detained during a brutal repression led by the IRGC. This wave of protests was much larger scale and more generalized than previous waves.
By February 2026, Russia is fairly consumed with the ongoing Ukraine War, unable to send material help. Iran is on her own, proxies like Hezbollah are diminished, rebuilding her air defenses and nuclear program. If there was a time to strike, it was now.
The Territory and the Lead-Up
Here are some curated background sources that should help make sense of the headlines.
🗺️ Land war is unrealistic. See Tomas Pueyo’s exploration of Iran to get a sense of how daunting the terrain is.
🚢 Can Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway carrying a fifth of the world’s oil trade? Keeping it closed would be harder than it looks according to the People's Art of War.
🔮 For a wider view of this conflict, The Bismarck Cables explained the military and political situation effectively. Conflict was inevitable, there was no offramp between Trump and how boxed in Iran had become.
Staying Updated
For a raw but detailed and digestible feed keep an eye on the Institute for the Study of War’s Middle East desk for daily updates. This is the best way to keep up with the conflict on a detailed level if that is your goal.
The Bismarck Cables, mentioned above, are a succinct way to keep abreast of international affairs of all sorts.
From an investment point of view, the most important question is “what is happening in the strait?” Real-time shipping information is a good place to start. Check out this map on Marine Traffic to start. Traffic is very light going through the Strait at this time. The thing to look at is if we see significant mining or other activity and maritime insurance rates effectively close the channel. It is probably too late to buy Brent Crude Oil futures.
Let’s hope for a fast and peaceful resolution to the fighting. Hopefully involving the end of a horribly repressive regime.