ZD 25.15: Tariff Thrill Ride
Are you enjoying the supply chain roller coaster?
Being human, nailing the basics, making coding fun again, Swedish ingenuity, Rap City remembrance & how to survive the roller coaster tariffs.
The Distilled Spirit
Things to Think On
🌎 Being Human in 2035 (Elon University)
AI is changing a lot about how we live and work, but how will AI change what it means to be human? Elon University asked 300 experts to weigh in on how humans will change over the next decade. The headline is that they see a reduction in capacity for complex thought and emotional well being countered with an increase in creativity and problem solving ability.
👍 Learning to Say Yes ()
Current time management advice is focused on graceful ways to say no. But saying ‘yes’ greatly increases your surface area, enhances your influence and provides you with more opportunities to succeed. So make time for the call and say yes to dinner with strangers.
💸 Nailing the Basics ()
If you want to get ahead, doing the little things right matters a lot. Blemishes detract from the work. Make sure your data is right, your deck is polished and your story linear enough for the audience.
🍔Puzzling Populist Devotion ()
The alliance theory of political beliefs goes a long way towards explaining how right wing populism keeps winning around the world.
🤷♀️ What AI in Education is Really About ()
What if you took a human first approach to AI in the classroom? How could it be used to enhance the educational experience for all?
Technical Progress
👩💻 Coding is Fun Again ()
I am a lot like Joe — I love to code things, but I definitely fall out love with it as a project gets bigger. AI speeds up the iteration cycle of software development. Coding is a much more fun at the price of many unfinished prototypes appearing in the wild.
🤖 Analog to Agentic Labor ()
Will agentic AI and a digital workforce propel humanity to advance our GDP quicker than the late 20th century average of doubling every 20 years? How does the business equation change when you start building agentic systems to be consumed by other agentic systems?
🏹 Svelte Swedish Drone Hunter (Eyes Only by Wes O'Donnell)
The future of drone defense is here and it looks more like Ikea flat pack than expensive, complicated missile defense technology. Small, cheap computer guided hunter munitions that can be updated overnight and don’t need a fat guidance tail to work. Could this be the device that flips the economics of drone defense?
🏭 Humanoid Robots in Manufacturing ()
The economics of humanoid robots are daunting. Specialized machines are much better in most factory circumstances. This is a different axis than the concept of humanoid robots in the home.
🏢 Workplace AI Requirement Response (Every)
Solid, phase by phase advice on what to do when the dreaded “using AI is part of your job” memo drops in your office.
Brain Candy
🐔 The Minecraft is Rocky Horror for TikTok Kids (Rolling Stone)
Ready to enter a world of memes learn what a “Chicken Jockey” is? At least the blockbuster is doing good things for theater bottom lines.
💽 Rap City Retrospective ()
Rap City had an amazing run that starts earlier than most people think. Relive lots of great moments in hip hop with this journey through the show’s story arc.
💀 Skull Emojis are for Laughs No Cap ()
A good place to FAFO and learn more about Gen Z slang.
🏢 How DC Densified ()
While Washington, DC has a reputation as being an expensive place to live we have also dodged the worst of the housing price rises that have been seen other places in the US. Arlington county provides a very good example of how to do sensible development that creates conditions where everyone can win.
🌳 Tech Free Homes of the Rich (Hollywood Reporter)
The biggest trend in the homes of the super rich is being tech free.
Tariff Thrill Ride
The U.S. tariff rate shifted more last week than at any point in my lifetime. Below are a few resources helping me frame the moment. Despite the recent market rally, I’m still uneasy about the bigger picture. Here are some of the more insightful pieces I have read in my vain attempts at self-assurance in this thrilling time.
🤝 Reciprocal Tariffs on Friendships ()
What if friendships operated under reciprocal tariffs? Rates: 1.3/5 on the ideas scale. Entertaining but not convincing.
📦 Consumer Goods Founders Freak Out ()
Consumer goods founders are reeling as price swings are wreaking havoc. Read about their nightmares first hand here.
🔮 Updated 2025 S&P 500 Outlook ()
"Tariff Tantrum" sums up the mood. It might be worth keeping the AI bets on the board, they still have room to run.
⌛ Put the P/E Ratio in Timeout ()
What if forward earnings estimates aren’t reliable? Rethinking valuation metrics.
💸 Treasury Market Unwind ()
I don’t claim to understand bonds deeply, but when bond folks panic, I pay attention.
🦅 American Disruption (Stratechery)
U.S. manufacturing didn’t hollow out by chance; new tariffs won’t reverse it.
🚢 The Growing Market for Tariff Evasion ()
Smugglers are rejoicing as we are creating dynamic opportunity for evasion arbitrage.
👑 Reshoring and Sovereign AI ()
How AI could splinter in a reshoring, multipolar world.
3️⃣ Three Ways Tariffs Could End ()
Thoughtful scenarios for how this might all play out. After this weekend, option three seems increasingly plausible.
The smartest minds are drawing different conclusions—but a few themes stand out: the AI wave is still cresting, valuation models are being stress-tested, and policy shifts are outpacing preparation. Keep your hands and arms inside the vehicle the ride is about to get exciting.
Musical Coda
The Look
’s Six Chart Sunday explores six different models of crisis cycles.
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