ZD 26.01: New Year, New CES
What to expect at CES and your curated 2026 predictions.
Happy new year! Thanks for reading the Zeitgeist Distilled. One piece of feedback I have got is that there is a little too much going on in each edition of this publication. It can be a bit confusing. I don’t disagree — the lift to create each piece has also increased. For 2026 I’m going to try and bifurcate the issue. I intend to keep a weekly edition, still landing on each Tuesday, but it will be entirely focused on curating the best reads and most interesting phenomena of the week. The longer-form essays and explorations will now live on their own as separate editions, not tied to a weekly production schedule. I’m hoping this will be a bit easier for me to produce and for everyone to consume.
As I write this, I am off to fabulous Las Vegas to explore this year’s Consumer Electronics Show. The first of these longer-form posts will be the parts of my trip that do not have to stay in Vegas. It should land a bit later this week, hangovers and travel willing.
A Different-Feeling CES
For the better part of the last few decades, my year has effectively started at the Consumer Electronics Show. I have lived through several waves of technology and finance at that venue — from the Great Financial Crisis through COVID and now the AI boom. Booths and vendors have ebbed and flowed throughout these cycles, but I have never lived in a world where Central Hall did not feature giant booths from Sony and Samsung until 2026. Change is in the air.
The writing was on the wall last year. Sony was in the same place, and the same historical size. It was a giant, threadbare booth full of actors cosplaying game characters with nary a Bravia TV to be seen. Like they had wanted to pull out, but were too far along to completely pull out. This year Sony have punted entirely, in the same corner but a third the size and in partnership with Honda.
Samsung has gone the other direction. In hindsight, they have always been looking to break out of their boxy booth for a while. I recall a VR roller coaster in the concourse that was almost worth the wait in line sometime around 2012. Last year, the Samsung booth was packed to the gills and most of the point was lost in the noise and the crowd. This year they decamped and are aiming to better control their narrative by hosting a standalone Samsung Experience in the Wynn.
It is an exciting time in technology — perhaps more exciting than most. Between the AI boom-or-bust cycle and tariff uncertainties this will be an interesting CES. Here is what is top of my mind as I pack for Vegas:
Is this an evolutionary or transformational CES? Are we getting good and orderly progress or a different world?
How on-device AI is progressing. Last year, almost everything was little more than a physical wrapper around a cloud-based AI solution. Everything was slow, clunky and ultimately commercially unsustainable.
Smart glasses have been looking promising. Is this the year smart glasses finally come together and become a viable mass consumer interface? It seems like the elements are in place to make it happen.
I will report back on what I see and learn later this week in our first CES special.
Predictions Distilled
It is the season for glittering predictions about 2026. I read a lot of them, here are some that stuck out in three buckets for easy consumption.
AI-Focused Predictions
AI pundits love to predict. Here are some of the more interesting thesis, ranging from most negative to most positive. A few common threads include predictions about the status and outcome of the AI bubble, legal issues getting settled and AI backlash beginning to take various forms. World models are also something to keep an eye on as we evolve past the LLM.
Nine AI Predictions for 2026 (Transformer)
The bubble could burst, causing a financial crash. Sam Altman has a very public crash out as AI anxiety spikes.
Six (or Seven) AI Predictions (Gary Marcus)
We are not getting closer to AGI, we are at peak bubble and expect the AI backlash to increase.
Six Themes for 2026 (Humanity Redefined)
Six fairly broad and workable predictions, the Apple one is especially interesting.
2026 Predictions (Matthew Harris)
Another intriguing set of predictions with confidence ratings. He sees hollywood collapsing and the job loss narrative dissapting.
17 Predictions for AI in 2026 (Understanding AI)
Timothy B. Lee gathered a panel of experts to share a slate of interesting AI predictions including degrees of confidence. The experts see good and orderly progress by and large. Scorecarding this in late 2026 will be fun.
Graphs for Thought
The right graph can capture a trend. Here are a few to think about for 2026.
10+ Graphs that Picture 2026+ (NEW ECONOMIES)
A fascinating series of images that illustrate where parts of the economy are going. And voice first AI is certainly going to be a thing in 2026.
Six Major Trends to Watch in 2026 (Chartr)
Six eye popping charts to wrap your head around the next year.
The Wider World
Here are some other 2026 predictions I liked.
26 Predictions for 2026 (Part II) (Rex Woodbury)
Thirteen thesis worth considering for your 2026 investment strategy.
2026 Predictions Across Every Category (GOOD THINKING)
The title is ambitious but the article gets there. Great food for generalists.
15 World-Stunning Scenarios (Politico Magazine)
AI-driven stock market flash crashes and Patriotic Innovation Zones, to name a few ideas about what 2026 could bring from leading thinkers and futurists.
Sports Crystal Ball (Front Office Sports)
Sports sit at the intersection of culture, media and finance these days.
Synthetic Interests
The Story Behind the Roland TR-808 (ObsoleteArchive)
The Roland TR-808 was a device putting sound generation, microprocessor control and onboard memory into one machine. To make it happen, they bought Mitsubishi chips that failed quality control, creating the signature kick, snap and crash.
Sweet Dreams are Made of This (The Gen X Jukebox)
How the Eurythmics’ iconic song came together.
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